Can iPhone production really move from China to the US? The experts don’t think so
- Marijan Hassan - Tech Journalist
- Apr 14
- 2 min read
While President Donald Trump has made a U-turn by exempting phones, computers, and chips from a potential 145% tariff, the long-held ambition of manufacturing iPhones in the United States continues to face significant hurdles. According to industry analysts and experts, the fundamental challenges that have kept the bulk of Apple's production in China for years still hold true.
The idea of an American-made iPhone isn't new. Back in 2011, during a dinner with then-President Barack Obama, the late Apple CEO Steve Jobs delivered a blunt assessment on the feasibility. "Those jobs aren't coming back," he reportedly said, highlighting the deep-seated reasons behind Apple's reliance on overseas manufacturing.
Fast forward to the present, and Trump believes the U.S. has the resources and workforce to manufacture iPhones domestically. However, the overwhelming consensus among analysts is that an American-made iPhone remains a distant, if not impossible, dream. The primary obstacle, as experts have long pointed out, boils down to cost and the unique manufacturing ecosystem that has developed in China.
"Based on labor costs alone, we estimate a 25% increase to the iPhone 16 Pro, currently priced at $1,199, if it were made in the U.S.," noted Bank of America Securities analyst Wamsi Mohan in a recent report. This would push the price to approximately $1,500. Wedbush's Dan Ives offered an even more drastic prediction, suggesting a US-made iPhone could retail for around $3,500. He estimates that Apple would need to invest a staggering $30 billion over three years just to move 10% of its supply chain to American soil.
It’s not just about tariffs
Apple relies heavily on Foxconn, its longtime contract manufacturer, which operates enormous campuses in China. These facilities include dorms, shuttle systems, and armies of seasonal workers. Foxconn can scale its workforce by tens of thousands ahead of an iPhone launch. U.S. factories are not equipped to do the same.
And then there’s the matter of skill. In a 2017 interview, Apple CEO Tim Cook noted that China has a vast pool of tooling engineers. These specialists bridge design and manufacturing. “You could fill multiple football fields with tooling engineers in China,” Cook said. “In the U.S., you’d have a hard time filling a room.”
Tried and failed
The last major attempt to bring iPhone production closer to home ended in disappointment. In 2017, Foxconn pledged to invest $10 billion in a Wisconsin plant that Trump hailed as a manufacturing triumph. The result? A factory that eventually pivoted to making face masks during the pandemic. It delivered just 1,454 jobs, far from the promised 13,000. It never produced electronics at scale.
Meanwhile, Apple’s Brazil experiment offers another cautionary tale. In 2011, Apple and Foxconn launched an iPhone plant there to avoid import taxes. Four years later, the phones made in Brazil still cost twice as much as those assembled in China. Most parts were still imported from Asia.
While there have been some small wins, such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.'s (TSMC) successful establishment of a chip manufacturing plant in Arizona, analysts believe that these are exceptions rather than the rule. "While it may be possible to move final assembly to the U.S., moving the entire iPhone supply chain would be a much bigger undertaking and would likely take many years, if even possible," wrote Mohan.
